AUM is overrated. The real game is platform value.
Harder to measure, but it’s what drives strategy.
Our two cents...
1. Blackstone stands alone.
$339B in AUM, $279B in fee-AUM, premium multiple.
A category of one.
2. Margins matter.
JLL’s LaSalle runs at ~21% margin.
Colliers’ Harrison Street-driven platform at ~42%.
As AUM scales, margins expand, which makes allocators like Harrison Street and Blackstone powerful.
3. Fee-generating AUM > AUM.
Just look at Brookfield’s relative decline.
Private credit gets a lot of attention but core debt doesn't create much platform value.
4. Valuations swing.
Hodes Weill: 13x–20x earnings for platforms.
Why the gap? Durable, high-yielding funds command premiums.
5. Potential arbitrage?
CBRE IM: ~$5B value (~9% of enterprise).
Colliers IM: ~$4.5B (~40%).
Similar business, wildly different weightings.
How could they close the gap?
CBRE should:
-- Grow AUM immediately
-- Buy bolt-on managers
-- Diversify into infrastructure
-- Otherwise sell or IPO the investment management business
Colliers should:
-- Guard margins
-- Brand as a mini-Blackstone.
Sun Life should:
-- Leverage back door control of BGO
-- Sell to CBRE
Platform value shapes appetite.
Appetite shapes markets.
That’s why we follow the dollars.
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