"Getting an entry-level job at Blackstone is 12 times harder than getting into Harvard. I doubt I'd be able to be hired today.”
Steve Schwarzman, Blackstone CEO
62,000 applicants for 169 positions.
This choke point could be a sign of what’s to come for commercial real estate investment roles.
Why?
Commercial real estate investing has traditionally been the best white collar example of an apprentice-based field.
Traditional CRE investor career path:
In your 20s, work long hours processing data in Excel/Argus, building presentation decks, reviewing estoppels, etc. …in exchange for a perch that allows you to see how decisions are made.
Typical comp: $75-150k a year.
In your 30s, become more of a decision maker while continuing to process information and increasingly recruiting/training younger associates to process information.
Typical comp: $200-500k a year.
In your 40s and 50s, get more opportunities to replace retiring decision makers as windows open for value creation. Spend significantly more time “thinking” and much less time “processing”.
Typical comp: $1m+.
Thousands of people have followed this path, defined by an entry point where ambitious 20-somethings traded their primary asset (time) for skills, which they leveraged to build wealth in the back half of their careers.
Problem…
We think we’re in the early innings of AI blowing up this path before it starts. There will almost certainly be fewer entry points.
Solution…
Focus on building real estate thinking skills instead of processing skills.
Ps - How much do you think the best Excel modeler made last year?
How much did the best real estate investor make? One indicator: Blackstone’s Jon Gray made nearly $300 million last year.
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