The last 23 years of real estate investing in a nutshell...
2003: Uncertainty
"Not only are many suburbs not cool anymore, they also don't work very well. The major cities will be there forever."
2004: Transition
“Low cap rates and huge capital flows could be fleeting phenomena. Poor fundamentals may stick around.”
2005: Change
“The race is on between improving fundamentals and rising interest rates.”
2006: Capital
“We are in the eighth or ninth inning of this cycle with a chance to go extra innings.”
2007: Oversupplied
"Cycles aren’t dead. This is just a longer cycle than normal...take it to the bank, an imbalance is coming. It’s just a matter of when and how severe."
2008: Fear
“Real estate had been priced like a ten-year Treasury without risk factored in. The party clearly got out of hand—now the year ahead metes out the inevitable punishment for some transcendentally reckless underwriting.”
2009: Dislocation
“Liquidity is always temporary.”
2010: Reckoning
“The key to success in real estate investing is to follow the capital flows, not the fundamentals.”
2011: Restraint
“Gateway 24-hour cities will always dominate and outshine
secondary markets.”
2012: Caution
"Face it: real estate doesn’t offer enough growth potential to satisfy all the capital demand...”
2013: Stability
"Real estate assets will almost certainly continue to outperform fixed-income investments in the ultralow-interest-rate environment."
2014: Momentum
"...valuations will no longer be driven by capital markets."
2015: Sustainability
"...it is possible to stretch for opportunities—you just have to be aware of how much runway you have left in the current cycle."
2016: Balance
“...the next 24 months look doggone good for real estate.”
2017: Resilience
“Despite concerns, there is room to grow...”
2018: Soft Landing
“We are in a long cycle, not in boom/bust.”
2019: Complexity
“Real estate as an asset class has matured.”
2020: Stability
“Time is a stream, not a frozen pond.”
2021: Uncertainty
"COVID-19 accelerated existing trends, including work-from-home flexibility, suburban migration, and a flight to safety in real estate."
2022: Resilience
“Despite all the disruptions, cities have retained their appeal...”
2023: Caution
"...those with a long-term view see opportunities to lay the groundwork for growth once the dust settles."
2024: Reset
"There’s just a few relevant properties in very attractive locations that remain relevant to corporate America...and the rest of the space? It’s like putting lipstick on a pig."
2025: Optimistic
“We are on the cusp of the next upturn in the real estate cycle, and now is the time to be thinking about planning, laying the groundwork for the next two to three years of growth.”
PS - The 2025 issue was released yesterday. Let us know if you can't find it and/or would like to review one of the archive issues. Great for historical perspectives.
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