Clickbait vs. real risks: These CRE stories dominated headlines but turned out to be duds while real risks hid in plain sight…
6. WeWork:
Failed as expected. Didn't move the needle.
5. Retail apocalypse:
Before we were worried about office, we were worried about retail. The Amazon effect. Malls didn't move the needle and other retail is thriving.
4. BREIT implosion:
The reporter who broke the Enron scandal labeled BREIT a "house of cards" last year. ...for behaving exactly as advertised.
3. Negative leverage:
Like it or not, buyers still underwrite growth, and apartment cap rates remain sub 5%. How'd you miss this? By misunderstanding return measures.
2. Maturity wall
"Extend and pretend" sounds better than "scheduled extension.”
1. Banking crisis
Many media outlets were certain we were headed into a S&L crisis 2.0 after SVB's failure. Predictably, we didn't.
More worthy of the hype…
- "Doom loop" narratives: Some CBDs are entering a very dark, extended period).
- Syndicator implosions: Sparks are starting to fly.Office challenges: Tale of two worlds. Stress for the “have nots” is just beginning.
Conclusion…
The loudest risks weren’t always the most material.
Tomorrow: 5 real risks still flying under the radar.
PS — our approach to differentiating clickbait vs. real risks? The frameworks we cover in FastTrack. DM us to learn more.
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