If you are a broker born after 1986...
1. You've never lived through a real CRE downturn, and
2. Declining compensation is likely wearing on you.
Here's a potential silver lining...
---- "Normal" downturns ----
Moderate declines (5-10%) in activity, occupancy, rents, and values.
---- "Severe" downturns ----
40% value declines, 30% loan default rates, widespread bank failures, etc. This has happened 4-5 times over the last 100 years, most recently with the GFC in 2008-09.
---- Downturn similarities ----
Fewer transactions via widening bid/ask gaps. Since brokers are on the leading edge, their compensation gets hit first. This downturn feels severe; capital markets commissions are down 40%+ over the last year.
---- Some good news ----
1. Activity and commissions will certainly rebound, and since this downturn was largely driven by interest rates (which affects all asset classes), the rebound will likely come sooner rather than later.
2. Your future performance will likely be more influenced by how you respond to this downturn vs. the direct effects of the downturn.
---- A unique opportunity ----
We teach an online real estate fundamentals class (FastTrack). It started as a small passion project a few years ago, but we've grown to 600+ alumni with 90+ net promoter scores, full classes, and strong engagement.
A "fundamentals class" may sound like a course for beginners, but the average participant has 5-10 years of experience with average compensation between $150K and 200K. When brokers (about 30% of our alumni) complete the class, they often say...
"This course gave me valuable context outside of my day-to-day experiences to differentiate myself from other brokers."
"Better understanding the levers of our business helps me to be able to speak more intelligently to principals/owners than my peers."
"Loved the high-impact nature of this course."
"Easily worth $25,000"
---- First-time offer ----
Join info session: If you want to level up your skills, we invite you to attend an upcoming info session. This Friday morning's info session will be the last before we start our next cohort.
Apply for a scholarship: If you've been negatively affected by this downturn, we encourage you to apply for a scholarship. Funds are limited, but we are dedicated to making skills training accessible for everyone in our industry.
---- Our selection approach ----
What matters: Your dedication, work ethic, awareness, and coachability.
What doesn't matter: Your age, GMAT, or academic pedigree.
If this sounds like you, DM us.
If this sounds like someone you know, tag them or forward this to them.
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