“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate it in the long run.”
Every generation underestimates technological revolution.
-- In the 1800s, railroads and steam redefined industry.
-- In the early 1900s, the combustion engine upended transportation.
-- In the 1970s, computing minted Microsoft, Intel, and Apple.
DEC was an early leader. It built the computers that powered companies and was on top of the world in 1977 when its founder and CEO said:
“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.”
They dismissed the personal computer, missed the entire wave, and within 20 years, DEC was gone.
Following the internet explosion of the early 2000s, we’re now at the edge of another seismic shift.
AI isn’t just about clunky assistants. The next wave is self-improving researchers and agents. Models that code, reason, experiment, and advance science faster than humans.
We’ve seen this movie before:
-- Edison wiped out New York Gas & Light's monopoly almost overnight.
-- Ford similarly bankrupted Brewster & Co., the Tiffany of buggies.
-- Studebaker pivoted multiple times and still went under.
Change feels slow until it explodes, and we could be in the early innings of a generational explosion.
Real estate won't be spared from disruption or the opportunities that come from this explosion.
Here's the CRE landscape as we see it:
-- Retirements and reorgs are accelerating
-- Transaction activity may not fully recover for a decade
-- The 40-year interest rate tailwind is gone
-- Junior hiring is stalled
-- Senior talent is being quietly cut
-- Even top investors are managing legacy issues
-- Margins are tight across the board
-- Boomers are passing down wealth
-- Individual investors favor alternatives
-- Productivity is surging (for the skilled)
-- Mid-level pros are using AI more than juniors
-- LLMs are still clunky but getting better by the day
-- Tech firms are rebuilding the digital stack from scratch
Our guesses about the future:
-- Today’s ChatGPT could feel like Atari in hindsight
-- The gap between winners and losers will widen substantially
-- The skilled will thrive in any market
-- Advantage will go to the connected, the curious, the curators
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